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Predicting the Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season With 500‐hPa Temperature
Author(s) -
Miller P. W.,
Trepanier J. C.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2021gl094741
Subject(s) - atlantic hurricane , tropical cyclone , climatology , storm , environmental science , meteorology , geology , geography
While North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts are numerous, the number of Gulf of Mexico (GOM) storms is normally left ambiguous. Motivated by the 2020 GOM hurricane season, this study introduces two methods of anticipating upcoming GOM TC frequency on June 1 of each year: (a) statistically transforming Climate Forecast System (CFS)‐predicted June–November GOM 500‐hPa temperature ( T 500 ); and (b) applying a 0.284 multiplier, the climatological proportion of GOM versus North Atlantic TCs, to a representative, widely circulated North Atlantic‐wide forecast. Both methods perform skillfully, especially given their simplicity. Though warm T 500 normally inhibits deep convection and is not generally considered among statistical TC forecasts, it is comparatively well represented by modeling systems. Additionally, T 500 is well correlated with traditional, yet less accurately resolved, TC environmental parameters. While unfavorable to individual TCs, T 500 generally (though indirectly) indicates several difficult‐to‐model physical aspects of more favorable GOM TC environments.