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Retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet During the Last Interglaciation and Implications for Future Change
Author(s) -
Golledge N. R.,
Clark P. U.,
He F.,
Dutton A.,
Turney C. S. M.,
Fogwill C. J.,
Naish T. R.,
Levy R. H.,
McKay R. M.,
Lowry D. P.,
Bertler N. A. N.,
Dunbar G. B.,
Carlson A. E.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2021gl094513
Subject(s) - proxy (statistics) , ice sheet , antarctic ice sheet , gcm transcription factors , geology , climatology , ice sheet model , climate change , sea ice , cryosphere , physical geography , ice stream , oceanography , general circulation model , geography , machine learning , computer science
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to past warming consistent with the 1.5–2°C “safe limit” of the United Nations Paris Agreement is currently not well known. Empirical evidence from the most recent comparable period, the Last Interglaciation, is sparse, and transient ice‐sheet experiments are few and inconsistent. Here, we present new, transient, GCM‐forced ice‐sheet simulations validated against proxy reconstructions. This is the first time such an evaluation has been attempted. Our empirically constrained simulations indicate that the AIS contributed 4 m to global mean sea level by 126 ka BP, with ice lost primarily from the Amundsen, but not Ross or Weddell Sea, sectors. We resolve the conflict between previous work and show that the AIS thinned in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin but did not retreat. We also find that the West AIS may be predisposed to future collapse even in the absence of further environmental change, consistent with previous studies.