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Are Multiseasonal Forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers Possible?
Author(s) -
Tseng KaiChih,
Johnson Nathaniel C.,
Kapnick Sarah B.,
Delworth Thomas L.,
Lu Feiyu,
Cooke William,
Wittenberg Andrew T.,
Rosati Anthony J.,
Zhang Liping,
McHugh Colleen,
Yang Xiaosong,
Harrison Matthew,
Zeng Fanrong,
Zhang Gan,
Murakami Hiroyuki,
Bushuk Mitchell,
Jia Liwei
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2021gl094000
Subject(s) - predictability , landfall , climatology , environmental science , precipitation , preparedness , meteorology , forecast skill , tropical cyclone , geography , statistics , geology , economics , mathematics , management
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) exert significant socioeconomic impacts in western North America, where 30 % of the annual precipitation is determined by ARs that occur in less than 15 % of wintertime. ARs are thus beneficial to water supply but can produce extreme precipitation hazards when making landfall. While most prevailing research has focused on the subseasonal ( ≤ 5 weeks) prediction of ARs, only limited efforts have been made for AR forecasts on multiseasonal timescales ( ≥ 3 months) that are crucial for water resource management and disaster preparedness. Through the analysis of reanalysis data and retrospective predictions from a new seasonal‐to‐decadal forecast system, this research shows the existing potential of multiseasonal AR frequency forecasts with predictive skills 9 months in advance. Additional analysis explores the dominant predictability sources and challenges for multiseasonal AR prediction.