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Reconciling Human and Natural Drivers of the Tripole Pattern of Multidecadal Summer Temperature Variations Over Eurasia
Author(s) -
Hua Wenjian,
Qin Minhua,
Dai Aiguo,
Zhou Liming,
Chen Haishan,
Zhang Wanxin
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2021gl093971
Subject(s) - forcing (mathematics) , atlantic multidecadal oscillation , climatology , surface air temperature , global warming , environmental science , east asia , climate change , atmospheric sciences , sea surface temperature , geology , geography , oceanography , archaeology , china
The recent summer surface air temperature (SAT) changes over densely populated Eurasia exhibit a non‐uniform pattern with amplified warming over Europe and East Asia (EA) but weak warming over Central Asia (CA), forming a wave train‐like structure. However, the key factors that determine this non‐uniform warming pattern remain unclear. By analyzing observations and model simulations, here, we show that more than half of the SAT multidecadal variations from 1950 to 2014 over Europe‐west Asia and EA may have resulted from external forcing, rather than from internal variability in the Atlantic as previously thought. In contrast, the recent SAT over CA is influenced mainly by internal variations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Large ensemble model simulations suggest that the forced SAT multidecadal variations over Eurasia are mainly caused by changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Our findings provide strong evidence for major impacts of external forcing on multidecadal climate variations over Eurasia.