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How Frequent Are Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Present and Future Climate?
Author(s) -
Jucker M.,
Reichler T.,
Waugh D. W.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2021gl093215
Subject(s) - sudden stratospheric warming , stratosphere , climatology , middle latitudes , environmental science , southern hemisphere , northern hemisphere , atmospheric sciences , climate model , polar vortex , ozone layer , ozone depletion , climate change , geology , oceanography
Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) result in smaller Antarctic ozone holes and are linked to extreme midlatitude weather on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Therefore, it is of interest how often such events occur and whether we should expect more events in the future. Here, we use a pair of novel multimillennial simulations with a stratosphere‐resolving coupled ocean‐atmosphere climate model to show that the frequency of SSWs, such as observed 2002 and 2019, is about one in 22 years for 1990 conditions. In addition, we show that we should expect the frequency of SSWs, and that of more moderate vortex weakening events, to strongly decrease by the end of this century.