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Seismogenic Potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust Constrained by Coupling Segmentation and Earthquake Scaling
Author(s) -
Michel Sylvain,
Jolivet Romain,
Rollins Chris,
Jara Jorge,
Dal Zilio Luca
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2021gl093106
Subject(s) - seismology , induced seismicity , geology , seismic hazard , moment magnitude scale , seismic moment , magnitude (astronomy) , thrust , earthquake rupture , slip (aerodynamics) , seismic gap , moment (physics) , earthquake simulation , earthquake swarm , foreshock , slow earthquake , scaling , fault (geology) , interplate earthquake , physics , aftershock , mathematics , geometry , classical mechanics , astronomy , thermodynamics
Recent studies have shown that the Himalayan region is under the threat of earthquakes of magnitude nine or larger. These estimates are based on comparisons of the geodetically inferred moment deficit rate with the seismicity of the region. However, these studies did not account for the physics of fault slip, specifically the influence of frictional barriers on earthquake rupture dynamics, which controls the extent and therefore the magnitude of large earthquakes. Here we combine an improved probabilistic estimate of moment deficit rate with results from dynamic models of the earthquake cycle to more fully assess the seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). We propose a straightforward and efficient methodology for incorporating outcomes of physics‐based earthquake cycle models into hazard estimates. We show that, accounting for uncertainties on the moment deficit rate, seismicity and earthquake physics, the MHT is prone to rupturing inM w8.7 earthquakes every T > 200 years.