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Statistical Modeling of the Bering Strait Throughflow for Operational Sea Ice Forecasting in the Chukchi Sea
Author(s) -
Lenetsky Jed E.,
Serreze Mark C.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2021gl092939
Subject(s) - throughflow , sea ice , geology , oceanography , climatology , ekman transport , upwelling , soil science
We utilize statistically modeled ocean heat transports through the Bering Strait along with additional predictors to create skillful predictions of sea ice retreat and advance dates in the Chukchi Sea. Interannual variability of June and September oceanic heat transports through the strait can be captured using modeled Ekman transports, surface winds, and sea surface temperatures. At one‐month leads, our models can explain 41% and 79% of sea ice retreat and advance date variance with root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of 10.2 and 12.8 days respectively. At 4‐month leads, our models can respectively capture 37% and 73% of sea ice retreat and advance date variance with RMSEs of 8.5 and 14.6 days. These findings offer a path toward operational forecasts of sea ice retreat and advance dates in the Chukchi Sea in the absence of direct, readily available observations of heat transports in the strait.