Open AccessProjected Changes to Hydroclimate Seasonality in the Continental United States
Author(s) -
Marvel Kate,
Cook Benjamin I.,
Bonfils Céline,
Smerdon Jason E.,
Williams A. Park,
Liu Haibo
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
earth's future
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.641
H-Index - 39
ISSN - 2328-4277
DOI - 10.1029/2021ef002019
Subject(s) - environmental science , annual cycle , water cycle , forcing (mathematics) , climatology , climate change , seasonality , surface runoff , streamflow , global warming , amplitude , climate model , atmospheric sciences , drainage basin , geography , geology , ecology , oceanography , physics , biology , cartography , quantum mechanics
Future changes to the hydrological cycle are projected in a warming world, and any shifts in drought risk may prove extremely consequential for natural and human systems. In addition to long‐term moistening, drying, or warming trends, perturbations to the annual cycle of regional hydroclimate variables may also have substantial impacts. We analyze projected changes in several hydroclimate variables across the continental United States, along with shifts in the amplitude and phase of their annual cycles. We find that even in regions where no robust change in the annual mean is expected, coherent changes to the annual cycle are projected. In particular, we identify robust regional phase shifts toward earlier arrival of peak evaporation in the northern regions, and peak runoff and total soil moisture in the western regions. Changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle of total and surface soil moisture are also projected, and reflect changes to the annual cycle in surface water supply and demand. Whether changes become detectable above the background noise of internal variability depends strongly on the future scenario considered, and significant changes to the annual cycle are largely avoided in the lowest‐forcing scenario.