Open AccessUncertainty Quantification of Ocean Parameterizations: Application to the K‐Profile‐Parameterization for Penetrative Convection
Author(s) -
Souza A. N.,
Wagner G. L.,
Ramadhan A.,
Allen B.,
Churavy V.,
Schloss J.,
Campin J.,
Hill C.,
Edelman A.,
Marshall J.,
Flierl G.,
Ferrari R.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
journal of advances in modeling earth systems
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.03
H-Index - 58
ISSN - 1942-2466
DOI - 10.1029/2020ms002108
Subject(s) - convection , turbulence , boundary layer , convective boundary layer , statistical physics , parametrization (atmospheric modeling) , scaling , fidelity , large eddy simulation , limit (mathematics) , scale (ratio) , environmental science , meteorology , mechanics , computer science , physics , planetary boundary layer , mathematics , mathematical analysis , geometry , radiative transfer , telecommunications , quantum mechanics
Abstract Parameterizations of unresolved turbulent processes often compromise the fidelity of large‐scale ocean models. In this work, we argue for a Bayesian approach to the refinement and evaluation of turbulence parameterizations. Using an ensemble of large eddy simulations of turbulent penetrative convection in the surface boundary layer, we demonstrate the method by estimating the uncertainty of parameters in the convective limit of the popular “K‐Profile Parameterization.” We uncover structural deficiencies and propose an alternative scaling that overcomes them.