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Elevation‐Dependent Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau From an Ensemble of CORDEX‐EA Regional Climate Simulations
Author(s) -
Niu Xiaorui,
Tang Jianping,
Chen Deliang,
Wang Shuyu,
Ou Tinghai
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1029/2020jd033997
Subject(s) - plateau (mathematics) , climatology , albedo (alchemy) , downscaling , weather research and forecasting model , environmental science , climate model , atmospheric sciences , forcing (mathematics) , precipitation , elevation (ballistics) , climate change , meteorology , geography , geology , physics , art , mathematical analysis , oceanography , mathematics , astronomy , performance art , art history
Under the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments‐East Asia (CORDEX‐EA‐II), the outputs from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by four global climate models (GCMs) are used to investigate the characteristics and possible mechanisms of the projected elevation‐dependent warming (EDW) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) under the Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). Results show that widespread warming over the TP is projected with considerable disagreements in warming intensity and the maximum warming center among RCMs. The largest spread in the surface air temperature ( T as ) projections is found above 5,000 m, indicating that a large uncertainty exists over the higher elevations. A marked EDW signal over the TP is simulated under the RCP 8.5 by the multi‐RCM ensemble mean for all seasons, particularly in autumn. Based on the analysis of the surface energy budget, it is found that the surface albedo feedback (SAF) is the primary contributor to EDW and acts as the main source of uncertainty in EDW projections among RCMs. The downward longwave radiation (DLW) is found to be the dominant factor in regulating T as change over the TP, and its contribution to EDW is model‐dependent. Furthermore, the structure and magnitude of projected EDW are sensitive to the RCM physics and driving GCM, as they can alter the projections of snow cover and albedo, which modulate the simulated SAF and its effect on EDW. Additionally, RegCM4 shows a higher sensitivity to the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing than WRF, evidenced by the larger temperature projections and stronger EDW signal in RegCM4.