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Evaluation of the Forecast Performance for Extreme Cold Events in East Asia With Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Data Sets From ECMWF
Author(s) -
Dai Guokun,
Mu Mu,
Li Chunxiang,
Han Zhe,
Wang Lei
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1029/2020jd033860
Subject(s) - predictability , anomaly (physics) , climatology , forecast skill , environmental science , polar vortex , lead (geology) , extreme cold , lead time , sea surface temperature , meteorology , quantitative precipitation forecast , atmospheric sciences , precipitation , stratosphere , geography , geology , mathematics , statistics , physics , condensed matter physics , geomorphology , marketing , business
Utilizing the subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) operational forecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts, the forecast skill for East Asian extreme cold events during 2015–2019 is evaluated. The results from the ensemble mean surface air temperature anomaly, the extreme forecast index, and the continuous ranked probability score skill reveal that extreme cold events can be captured by numerical models with a lead time of 7 days. It is also found that long‐persistent extreme cold events tend to have a longer skillful forecast lead time, which can exceed 10 days. The long skillful forecast lead time indicates that these events have a high intrinsic predictability, and the remote sea surface temperature anomaly, tropical intra‐seasonal oscillation and stratospheric polar vortex may be possible reasons for this predictability. The results suggest that it may be possible to make S2S and beyond skillful forecasts.