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Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Caribbean Under Future Climate Conditions
Author(s) -
Kleptsova Olga S.,
Dijkstra Henk A.,
van Westen René M.,
van der Boog Carine G.,
Katsman Caroline A.,
James Rebecca K.,
Bouma Tjeerd J.,
Klees Roland,
Riva Riccardo E. M.,
Slobbe D. Cornelis,
Zijlema Marcel,
Pietrzak Julie D.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: oceans
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-9291
pISSN - 2169-9275
DOI - 10.1029/2020jc016869
Subject(s) - tropical cyclone , climatology , environmental science , storm , sea surface temperature , climate change , flood myth , climate model , oceanography , geography , meteorology , geology , archaeology
Joint effects of the dynamic sea‐level rise projected changes in the large‐scale atmosphere/ocean circulation, and wave climate on hurricane‐induced extreme water levels in the Caribbean region are assessed. We use the 2D‐depth integrated ADCIRC + SWAN wave‐ocean model, baroclinically coupled to an ocean‐eddying version of the Community Earth System Model, to compare impacts of the September 2017 hurricanes with projected impacts of similar hypothetical tropical storms occurring in the future. The model predicts only minor changes in the hurricane‐induced extreme water levels for those Caribbean islands which were severely devastated by the 2017 tropical storms (Irma and Maria). That is, provided that the hurricane intensity remains at the present‐day level, the global mean sea‐level rise is the main future coastal flood risk factor.

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