Regional Subsidence Analysis Through a Multi‐Scale Modeling Framework Based on Breakage Mechanics

Although poroelastic models are often used to explain the delay between subsurface fluid depletion and ground subsidence, inelastic compaction involving permanent changes of rock microstructure may exacerbate hydro‐mechanical coupling, thus influencing the interpretation of measurements and long‐term forecasts. Here, a multi‐scale modeling approach is discussed, which accounts for the inherent connection between rock microstructure, hydraulic conductivity, and pore compaction. A constitutive model built within the framework of breakage mechanics is proposed to link the hydraulic conductivity of granular rocks with inelastic deformations and changes in grading caused by injection‐depletion cycles at stress levels far from yielding. The proposed model has been incorporated into large‐scale simulation frameworks, thus enabling the spatiotemporal mapping of regional subsidence through a hybrid, semi‐analytical approach. Numerical results based on this strategy show that the model allows isolating near‐field and far‐field effects into the computation of land subsidence and can generate forecasts for different modeling scenarios (e.g., elastic and inelastic compaction, constant permeability, and concurrent change of compressibility and permeability). In particular, examples of simulations for the case of the Groningen gas field are discussed, showing the model capabilities to use both field measurements and laboratory tests for the generation of reasonable subsidence maps, without expensive computational costs. Results indicate that ignoring coupled inelastic effects has major consequences on the predicted timescale of subsidence. Specifically, while all the model scenarios produced similar long‐term ground settlements, those ignoring breakage‐dependent permeability changes result in a variation of the temporal window of residual subsidence of the order of several decades.