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Projecting Global Mean Sea‐Level Change Using CMIP6 Models
Author(s) -
Hermans Tim H. J.,
Gregory Jonathan M.,
Palmer Matthew D.,
Ringer Mark A.,
Katsman Caroline A.,
Slangen Aimée B. A.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl092064
Subject(s) - climate change , climatology , environmental science , coupled model intercomparison project , climate model , representative concentration pathways , sea level , general circulation model , global change , geology , oceanography
The effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) has increased relative to CMIP5. We explore the implications of this for global mean sea‐level (GMSL) change projections in 2100 for three emissions scenarios. CMIP6 projections of global surface air temperature are substantially higher than in CMIP5, but projections of global mean thermal expansion are not. Using these projections as input to construct projections of GMSL change with IPCC AR5 methods, the 95th percentile of GMSL change at 2100 only increases by 3–7 cm. Projected rates of GMSL rise around 2100 increase more strongly, though, implying more pronounced differences beyond 2100 and greater committed sea‐level rise. Intermodel differences in GMSL projections indicate that EffCS‐based model selection may substantially alter the ensemble projections. GMSL change in 2100 is accurately predicted by time‐integrated temperature change, and thus requires reducing emissions early to be mitigated.