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Tropical Cyclone Frequency Under Varying SSTs in Aquaplanet Simulations
Author(s) -
Burnett Adam C.,
Sheshadri Aditi,
Silvers Levi G.,
Robinson Thomas
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl091980
Subject(s) - intertropical convergence zone , equator , sea surface temperature , climatology , precipitation , tropical cyclone , environmental science , latitude , atmospheric sciences , rainband , cyclone (programming language) , geology , meteorology , physics , geodesy , field programmable gate array , computer science , computer hardware
Global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency is investigated in a 50‐km‐resolution aquaplanet model forced by zonally symmetric sea surface temperature (SST). TC frequency per unit area is found to be proportional to the Coriolis parameter at the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), as defined by the latitude of maximum precipitation. As the latitude of maximum SST is shifted northward from the equator, the precipitation maximum moves northward and TC frequency increases. When the SST maximum is shifted northward past 25°N, the precipitation maximum remains between 15°N and 20°N, and TC frequency per unit area is approximately constant. When applied to observed precipitation and SST data, the same scaling captures a substantial fraction of observed TCs. Results suggest that future changes in TC activity will be modulated by changes in the large‐scale circulation, and in particular that the ITCZ location is an important determinant of the number of TCs.