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The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP
Author(s) -
Jones Chris D.,
Hickman Jonathan E.,
Rumbold Steven T.,
Walton Jeremy,
Lamboll Robin D.,
Skeie Ragnhild B.,
Fiedler Stephanie,
Forster Piers M.,
Rogelj Joeri,
Abe Manabu,
Botzet Michael,
Calvin Katherine,
Cassou Christophe,
Cole Jason N.S.,
Davini Paolo,
Deushi Makoto,
Dix Martin,
Fyfe John C.,
Gillett Nathan P.,
Ilyina Tatiana,
Kawamiya Michio,
Kelley Maxwell,
Kharin Slava,
Koshiro Tsuyoshi,
Li Hongmei,
Mackallah Chloe,
Müller Wolfgang A.,
Nabat Pierre,
van Noije Twan,
Nolan Paul,
Ohgaito Rumi,
Olivié Dirk,
Oshima Naga,
Parodi Jose,
Reerink Thomas J.,
Ren Lili,
Romanou Anastasia,
Séférian Roland,
Tang Yongming,
Timmreck Claudia,
Tjiputra Jerry,
Tourigny Etienne,
Tsigaridis Kostas,
Wang Hailong,
Wu Mingxuan,
Wyser Klaus,
Yang Shuting,
Yang Yang,
Ziehn Tilo
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl091883
Subject(s) - environmental science , atmospheric sciences , shortwave radiation , greenhouse gas , climate model , aerosol , shortwave , covid-19 , climatology , climate change , air quality index , ozone , meteorology , radiative transfer , radiation , geography , geology , medicine , oceanography , physics , disease , pathology , quantum mechanics , infectious disease (medical specialty)
Many nations responded to the corona virus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO 2 , other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial‐condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near‐surface temperature or rainfall during 2020–2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID‐19‐related emission reductions on near‐term climate.