Premium
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
Author(s) -
Payne Antony J.,
Nowicki Sophie,
AbeOuchi Ayako,
Agosta Cécile,
Alexander Patrick,
Albrecht Torsten,
AsayDavis Xylar,
Aschwanden Andy,
Barthel Alice,
Bracegirdle Thomas J.,
Calov Reinhard,
Chambers Christopher,
Choi Youngmin,
Cullather Richard,
Cuzzone Joshua,
Dumas Christophe,
Edwards Tamsin L.,
Felikson Denis,
Fettweis Xavier,
GaltonFenzi Benjamin K.,
Goelzer Heiko,
Gladstone Rupert,
Golledge Nicholas R.,
Gregory Jonathan M.,
Greve Ralf,
Hattermann Tore,
Hoffman Matthew J.,
Humbert Angelika,
Huybrechts Philippe,
Jourdain Nicolas C.,
Kleiner Thomas,
Munneke Peter Kuipers,
Larour Eric,
Le clec'h Sebastien,
Lee Victoria,
Leguy Gunter,
Lipscomb William H.,
Little Christopher M.,
Lowry Daniel P.,
Morlighem Mathieu,
Nias Isabel,
Pattyn Frank,
Pelle Tyler,
Price Stephen F.,
Quiquet Aurélien,
Reese Ronja,
Rückamp Martin,
Schlegel NicoleJeanne,
Seroussi Hélène,
Shepherd Andrew,
Simon Erika,
Slater Donald,
Smith Robin S.,
Straneo Fiammetta,
Sun Sainan,
Tarasov Lev,
Trusel Luke D.,
Van Breedam Jonas,
Wal Roderik,
Broeke Michiel,
Winkelmann Ricarda,
Zhao Chen,
Zhang Tong,
Zwinger Thomas
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl091741
Subject(s) - coupled model intercomparison project , climatology , ice sheet , future sea level , climate model , environmental science , sea ice , greenland ice sheet , forcing (mathematics) , cryosphere , antarctic ice sheet , ice sheet model , snow , climate change , atmospheric sciences , geology , meteorology , oceanography , ice shelf , geography
Abstract Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.