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Early Warning of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phase Transition Using Complex Network Analysis
Author(s) -
Lu Zhenghui,
Yuan Naiming,
Yang Qing,
Ma Zhuguo,
Kurths Jürgen
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl091674
Subject(s) - pacific decadal oscillation , warning system , oscillation (cell signaling) , pacific ocean , climatology , signal (programming language) , phase (matter) , el niño southern oscillation , oceanography , environmental science , phase transition , event (particle physics) , geology , physics , telecommunications , computer science , chemistry , condensed matter physics , quantum mechanics , programming language , biochemistry
Abstract Obtaining an efficient prediction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase transition is a worldwide challenge. Here, we employed the climate network analysis to uncover early warning signals prior to a PDO phase transition. This way an examination of cooperative behavior in the PDO region revealed an enhanced signal that propagated from the western Pacific to the northwest coast of North America. The detection of this signal corresponds very well to the time when the upper ocean heat content in the off‐equatorial northwestern tropical Pacific reaches a threshold, in which case a PDO phase transition may be expected with the arising of the next El Nin ∼ o/La Ni n ∼a event. The objectively detected early warning signal successfully forewarned all the six PDO phase transitions from the 1890–2000, and also underpinned the possible PDO phase transition around 2015, which may be triggered by the strong El Ni n ∼ o event in 2015–2016.