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Increasing Synchronous Fire Danger in Forests of the Western United States
Author(s) -
Abatzoglou John T.,
Juang Caroline S.,
Williams A. Park,
Kolden Crystal A.,
Westerling Anthony LeRoy
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl091377
Subject(s) - environmental science , fire protection , wildfire suppression , proxy (statistics) , fire regime , environmental resource management , geography , climatology , physical geography , firefighting , ecosystem , ecology , geology , cartography , computer science , engineering , civil engineering , machine learning , biology
Widespread fire activity taxes suppression resources and can compound wildfire hazards. We examine the geographic synchronicity of fire danger across western United States forests as a proxy for the strain on fire suppression resource availability. Interannual variability in the number of days with synchronous fire danger, defined as fire weather indices exceeding the local 90th percentile across ≥40% of forested land, was strongly correlated ( r = 0.85) with the number of days with high strain on national fire management resources. A 25‐day increase in the annual number of days with synchronous fire danger was observed during 1979–2020. Climate projections show a doubling of such days by 2051–2080. Such changes will escalate the likelihood of years with extended periods of synchronous fire danger that have historically strained suppression efforts and contributed to additional burned area, therein requiring additional management strategies for coping with anticipated surges in fire suppression demands.