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Projected Changes to Australian Marine Heatwaves
Author(s) -
Misra R.,
Sérazin G.,
Meissner K. J.,
Sen Gupta A.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl091323
Subject(s) - environmental science , climatology , marine ecosystem , climate change , climate model , sea surface temperature , ecosystem , oceanography , geology , ecology , biology
Marine heatwaves are extreme oceanic events that can have severe impacts on ecosystems and economies. Recent studies have suggested future increases in the severity and duration of these events. However, these findings are based on coarse resolution climate models that cannot resolve important ocean structures. This study uses a 0.25° coupled regional model to quantify how marine heatwaves around Australia respond under a high emissions scenario. We find that increases to future marine heatwave statistics are primarily caused by changes in the mean temperature, with changes in variability important in some areas. Temperature variance changes are most prominent close to Tasmania, with a covariance temperature budget demonstrating that this is linked to large simulated increases in East Australian Current transport and variability. Close to New Zealand, changes in surface heat fluxes also play an important role. These results quantify the response of marine heatwave characteristics to future temperature changes.