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Aerosol Forcing Masks and Delays the Formation of the North Atlantic Warming Hole by Three Decades
Author(s) -
Dagan Guy,
Stier Philip,
WatsonParris Duncan
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl090778
Subject(s) - forcing (mathematics) , climatology , aerosol , northern hemisphere , environmental science , global warming , climate model , climate change , abrupt climate change , southern hemisphere , radiative forcing , atmospheric sciences , atlantic equatorial mode , oceanography , north atlantic oscillation , effects of global warming , atlantic multidecadal oscillation , geology , geography , meteorology
The North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH) is referred to as a reduced warming, or even cooling, of the North Atlantic during an anthropogenic‐driven global warming. A NAWH is predicted by climate models during the 21st century, and its pattern is already emerging in observations. Despite the known key role of the North Atlantic surface temperatures in setting the Northern Hemisphere climate, the mechanisms behind the NAWH are still not fully understood. Using state‐of‐the‐art climate models, we show that anthropogenic aerosol forcing opposes the formation of the NAWH (by leading to a local warming) and delays its emergence by about 30 years. In agreement with previous studies, we also demonstrate that the relative warming of the North Atlantic under aerosol forcing is due to changes in ocean heat fluxes, rather than air‐sea fluxes. These results suggest that the predicted reduction in aerosol forcing during the 21st century may accelerate the formation of the NAWH.