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How Does El Niño–Southern Oscillation Change Under Global Warming—A First Look at CMIP6
Author(s) -
Fredriksen HegeBeate,
Berner Judith,
Subramanian Aneesh C.,
Capotondi Antonietta
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl090640
Subject(s) - teleconnection , climatology , extratropical cyclone , coupled model intercomparison project , el niño southern oscillation , environmental science , climate model , sea surface temperature , pacific decadal oscillation , global warming , climate change , madden–julian oscillation , atmospheric sciences , geology , oceanography , geography , meteorology , convection
Abstract The latest generation of coupled models, the sixth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), is used to study the changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a warming climate. For the four future scenarios studied, the sea surface temperature variability increases in most CMIP6 models, but to varying degrees. This increase is linked to a weakening of the east‐west temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is evident across all models. Just as in previous generations of climate models, we find that many characteristics of future ENSO remain uncertain. This includes changes in dominant time scale, extratropical teleconnection patterns, and amplitude of El Niño and La Niña events. For models with the strongest increase in future variability, the majority of the increase happens in the Eastern Pacific, where the strongest El Niño events usually occur.