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Are Multi‐Decadal Fluctuations in Arctic and Antarctic Surface Temperatures a Forced Response to Anthropogenic Emissions or Part of Internal Climate Variability?
Author(s) -
England Mark R.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl090631
Subject(s) - climatology , environmental science , forcing (mathematics) , pacific decadal oscillation , arctic , climate model , greenhouse gas , the arctic , climate change , surface air temperature , arctic oscillation , atmospheric sciences , sea surface temperature , geology , oceanography , northern hemisphere
In this study, we investigate the drivers of observed multi‐decadal fluctuations in Arctic and Antarctic surface temperatures using multiple large ensembles of climate simulations and single‐forcing ensembles. We find that the observed oscillation in Arctic surface temperature around a linear trend since 1920 is a forced response to emissions of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. In contrast, we show that observed multi‐decadal Antarctic surface temperature fluctuations are partially related to Pacific decadal variability which influences the climate of West Antarctica. Lastly, we demonstrate that internally driven multi‐decadal fluctuations at the two poles are not systematically correlated in any climate model examined here, as had been previously suggested. We conclude by discussing the implications of these results for understanding projections of Arctic and Antarctic surface climate of the coming decades.