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Transformation of Generation Processes From Small Runoff Events to Large Floods
Author(s) -
Tarasova L.,
Basso S.,
Merz R.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl090547
Subject(s) - flood myth , snowmelt , surface runoff , environmental science , mesoscale meteorology , climatology , storm , climate change , dominance (genetics) , hydrology (agriculture) , snow , geology , meteorology , geography , oceanography , ecology , biochemistry , chemistry , gene , biology , geotechnical engineering , archaeology
Mixture of runoff generation processes poses a challenge for predicting upper flood quantiles. We examined transformations of generation processes from all identifiable runoff events to frequent and upper tail floods for a large set of mesoscale catchments and observed a substantial change of the dominant processes. Two trajectories of transformation were detected. In regions where floods occur almost exclusively in winter the dominance of processes related to snowmelt consistently increases from small events to frequent and upper tail floods. In catchments characterized by frequent winter‐spring floods and occasional summer‐autumn flood events triggered by rare meteorological phenomena (e.g., Vb cyclones), processes that dominate upper tails are not adequately represented in the sample of frequent floods. Predictions of extremes and projections of flood changes might remain highly uncertain in the latter cases.