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Larger Sensitivity of Arctic Precipitation Phase to Aerosol than Greenhouse Gas Forcing
Author(s) -
Pan Shifeng,
Dou Tingfeng,
Lin Lei,
Yang Jiao,
Zhang Feng,
Duan Mingkeng,
Zhao Chuanfeng,
Liao Hong,
Xiao Cunde
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl090452
Subject(s) - environmental science , precipitation , arctic , climatology , greenhouse gas , forcing (mathematics) , aerosol , atmospheric sciences , radiative forcing , global warming , climate change , meteorology , oceanography , geology , geography
The sensitivity of the Arctic precipitation phases (solid and liquid) to the forcings from greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols over 2016–2080 was investigated by using the Community Earth System Model Version 1. Results show that the warming caused by the two forcings results in an increasing trend in total precipitation and a solid‐to‐liquid precipitation transition in the Arctic. Under RCP8.5 scenario, the increased rate of Arctic mean precipitation with global warming forced by aerosol reduction (7.7%/°C) is twice greater than that by increased GHG emission (3.5%/°C). The sensitivity of rainfall to precipitation ratio (RPR) to various forcings is much higher than that of total precipitation in the Arctic. The increased rate of RPR due to global aerosol forcing (8.4%/°C) is approximately 3 times that due to GHG forcing (2.9%/°C) in the Arctic, the differences even larger over Greenland and the eastern Arctic Ocean, resulting in more rainfall in these areas.