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Caspian Sea and Black Sea Response to Greenhouse Warming in a High‐Resolution Global Climate Model
Author(s) -
Huang Lei,
Lee SunSeon,
Timmermann Axel
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl090270
Subject(s) - environmental science , ocean gyre , climatology , global warming , climate change , climate model , oceanography , greenhouse gas , effects of global warming , marine ecosystem , ecosystem , atmospheric sciences , geology , subtropics , ecology , biology
The Caspian Sea and the Black Sea are the Earth's largest inland seas. How their temperature, circulation, and freshwater balance will respond to greenhouse warming remains unresolved. Previous studies have relied on coarse‐resolution coupled or regional uncoupled climate models with limited abilities to resolve regional features. Here, we present results from century‐long greenhouse warming simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model using a global horizontal resolution of 1/10° in the ocean and inland seas and 1/4° in the atmosphere. In response to CO 2 doubling surface temperatures in the inland seas increase by about 2.5°C. An overall reduction of wind stress curl causes a spin‐down of the main gyre circulations, reaching about −20%/CO 2 doubling for the Black Sea Rim Current. Increased future evaporation translates to negative equivalent sea level trends of about −0.1 m/year/CO 2 doubling. The robust climate shifts presented here are likely to impact ecosystems, fisheries, and threaten existing coastal infrastructures.