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Periodicity Analysis of Earthquake Occurrence and Hypocenter Depth Near Parkfield, California, 1994–2002 Versus 2006–2014
Author(s) -
Dutilleul Pierre,
Johnson Christopher W.,
Bürgmann Roland
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl089673
Subject(s) - hypocenter , seismology , geology , trough (economics) , foreshock , induced seismicity , aftershock , economics , macroeconomics
In central California, periodic earthquake occurrence suggests a relationship with annual hydrological, atmospheric, thermal, and tidal loadings. In catalogs of declustered earthquakes within 100 km from Parkfield, CA, we study a semiannual periodicity for the monthly number of ≤7.2‐km‐deep earthquakes and the monthly median hypocenter depth over 1994–2002 and 2006–2014. Peak‐trough months in fitted periodic components differ between time spans and event populations. Deeper earthquakes present no semiannual and a weak annual periodicity. Although modeled pore pressure shows a Spring peak, when added to the elastic Coulomb stress from surface hydrospheric loads, it fails to predict a 6‐month periodicity for 2006–2014. In 1994–2002, the pore‐pressure amplitude appears to be of same order as the elastic stress and may have had a stronger effect. In 2006–2014, we did not find load model parameters explaining the observed pattern or apparent changes following the 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquakes.