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A 4‐Month Lead Predictor of Open‐Water Onset in Bering Strait
Author(s) -
Luo Xiaofan,
Wang Yali,
Lu Youyu,
Wei Hao,
Zhao Wei,
Nie Hongtao,
Hu Xianmin
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl089573
Subject(s) - lead (geology) , open water , open sea , cape , oceanography , climatology , geology , sea ice , current (fluid) , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , geomorphology , geography , archaeology
Abstract This study reveals that the yearday of open‐water onset ( t open ) in Bering Strait can be predicted with a lead time of about 4 months using a regression equation t open = 37.45 C CN + 125.2 (in Julian days), with an averaged absolute error of 5 days and the maximum error of 12 days, where C CN is the ice concentration averaged from 16th January to 15th February near Cape Navarin. This “predictor” is revealed through analyzing the solution of a regional ocean and sea‐ice model. A key factor contribution to the prediction is that the prior winter ice concentration is controlled by the sea surface temperature, and persists into the start of the melting phase near the marginal ice zone in the Cape Navarin area. As ice melts near Cape Navarin, successive melting due to solar heat absorption and lateral heat transport occurs rapidly downstream along Anadyr Current.