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Sources of the Intermodel Spread in Projected Global Monsoon Hydrological Sensitivity
Author(s) -
Cao Jian,
Wang Bo,
Wang Bin,
Zhao Haikun,
Wang Chao,
Han Ying
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl089560
Subject(s) - northern hemisphere , monsoon , climatology , environmental science , sea surface temperature , southern hemisphere , precipitation , coupled model intercomparison project , atmospheric sciences , climate change , geology , oceanography , climate model , meteorology , geography
The projected monsoon hydrological sensitivity, namely, the precipitation change rate per kelvin of global warming, shows substantial intermodel spread among 40 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. The hydrological sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon is negatively correlated with that of the Southern Hemisphere summer monsoon. The intermodel spread of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon hydrological sensitivity is mainly attributed to the projected interhemispheric temperature gradients and the associated low‐level cross‐equatorial flows. The intermodel spread of the Afro‐Asia summer monsoon sensitivity is rooted in the projected continent‐ocean thermal gradients, while the spread of the North American monsoon sensitivity is related to the projected sea surface temperature pattern in the tropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic. These findings suggest that further constraining monsoon hydrological sensitivity requires a better projection of the warming rate between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and between the land and ocean, and the sea surface warming pattern in the tropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic.