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Poleward Shift of Northern Subtropics in Winter: Time of Emergence of Zonal Versus Regional Signals
Author(s) -
D'Agostino Roberta,
Scambiati Ascanio Luigi,
Jungclaus Johann,
Lionello Piero
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl089325
Subject(s) - subtropics , northern hemisphere , climatology , climate change , southern hemisphere , latitude , subtropical ridge , environmental science , geology , geography , oceanography , meteorology , ecology , biology , precipitation , geodesy
The Northern Hemisphere mid‐latitudes will be exposed to hydroclimatic risk in next coming decades because the subtropical expansion. However, it is not clear when the anthropogenic signal will emerge from the internal climate variability. For this purpose, we investigate the time of emergence (ToE) of the hemispheric and regional shift of northern subtropical margins in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. For several indicators, the ToE of the poleward shift of Northern subtropical margin will not occur by the end of the 21st century, neither at regional nor at hemispheric scale. The exceptions are the Mediterranean/Middle East and, to a lesser degree, Western Pacific, where the ToE would occur earlier. According to our results, given the fundamental role played by internal variability, trends of Northern Hemisphere subtropical poleward shift that have been identified over last decades in reanalyses cannot be considered as robust signals of anthropogenic climate change.