Premium
A Simple Method for Predicting Intensity Change Using the Peak Time Lag Between Lightning and Wind in Tropical Cyclones
Author(s) -
Kong Xiangzhen,
Zhao Yang,
Qiu Zhenfeng,
Tao Xinyi,
Zhang Wenjuan
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl088872
Subject(s) - lightning (connector) , intensity (physics) , lag , tropical cyclone , typhoon , environmental science , meteorology , time lag , lag time , wind speed , storm , atmospheric sciences , geology , physics , computer science , power (physics) , computer network , quantum mechanics , biological system , biology
Using lightning data from the World‐Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and tracking data for Tropical Cyclones (TCs) from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the relationship between the peak time lag ( T lag ) and the wind intensity change in severe and super typhoons was investigated. The T lag between the maximum peaks of the inner‐core lightning and the TC intensity ranged from −132 to 198 h, while that of the entire TC lightning ranged from −174 to 198 h. The median T lag values for strengthening and weakening storms were 54 and −21 h, respectively, while those for the entire TCs were 59 and −64 h, respectively. Lightning Frequency Peaks (LFPs) occurred more often with Average Intensity Changes (AICs) than intense intensity changes. Boundary equations were established based on the previous wind intensity change versus T lag , and T lag was simplified as a potential forecasting parameter of TC intensity change.