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Enhanced Predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Using the ENSO Longitude Index
Author(s) -
Balaguru Karthik,
Patricola Christina M.,
Hagos Samson M.,
Leung L. Ruby,
Dong Lu
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl088849
Subject(s) - predictability , climatology , el niño southern oscillation , thermocline , tropical cyclone , multivariate enso index , longitude , environmental science , structural basin , southern oscillation , oceanography , geology , latitude , paleontology , physics , geodesy , quantum mechanics
Abstract While El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences eastern North Pacific (ENP) tropical cyclones (TCs) through a variety of atmospheric processes when examined concurrently, ocean pathways dominate at longer lead times. The eastward displacement of the warm pool during an El Niño, which carries warm water into the ENP basin, is the primary oceanic mechanism. Despite this, the question of whether an accurate knowledge of preseason ENSO conditions enhances predictability of ENP TCs has not been addressed specifically. In this study, we show that relative to traditional indices of ENSO, the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI) captures changes in the location of deep convection and associated thermocline processes more accurately. Consequently, the ELI explains more variability in the upper‐ocean heat content, and thus TC activity, at lead times of several months in the ENP basin. These results motivate the need to further explore the predictability of ENP TCs associated with ENSO.