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Tropical Rainfall Linked to Stronger Future ENSO‐NAO Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models
Author(s) -
Fereday D. R.,
Chadwick R.,
Knight J. R.,
Scaife A. A.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl088664
Subject(s) - teleconnection , climatology , extratropical cyclone , storm track , environmental science , north atlantic oscillation , coupled model intercomparison project , stratosphere , subtropics , troposphere , polar vortex , tropical cyclogenesis , atmospheric sciences , climate model , storm , climate change , el niño southern oscillation , geology , oceanography , cyclone (programming language) , field programmable gate array , fishery , computer science , computer hardware , biology
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has previously been shown to influence the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here we investigate the ENSO‐NAO teleconnection in historical and RCP8.5 scenario CMIP5 simulations and show a future strengthening of the teleconnection under RCP8.5. The teleconnection strength is associated with increased East Pacific tropical rainfall variability. Stratospheric and tropospheric teleconnection pathways are examined, with both pathways having stronger links in the future. The stratospheric pathway involves the Aleutian Low and the stratospheric polar vortex with a downward influence on the NAO. This pathway is clearest in the high‐top models that better resolve the stratosphere. The tropospheric pathway is driven by the Pacific subtropical jet strengthening and extending further into the Atlantic in the future, generating increased baroclinicity in the Caribbean and influencing the Atlantic storm track. These results suggest increasing influence of tropical rainfall on extratropical circulation in the future.