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Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble
Author(s) -
Roberts Malcolm John,
Camp Joanne,
Seddon Jon,
Vidale Pier Luigi,
Hodges Kevin,
Vannière Benoît,
Mecking Jenny,
Haarsma Rein,
Bellucci Alessio,
Scoccimarro Enrico,
Caron LouisPhilippe,
Chauvin Fabrice,
Terray Laurent,
Valcke Sophie,
Moine MariePierre,
Putrasahan Dian,
Roberts Christopher D.,
Senan Retish,
Zarzycki Colin,
Ullrich Paul,
Yamada Yohei,
Mizuta Ryo,
Kodama Chihiro,
Fu Dan,
Zhang Qiuying,
Danabasoglu Gokhan,
Rosenbloom Nan,
Wang Hong,
Wu Lixin
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl088662
Subject(s) - tropical cyclone , climatology , environmental science , tropical cyclogenesis , climate model , storm , tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting , middle latitudes , climate change , sea surface temperature , tropical cyclone scales , atlantic hurricane , cyclone (programming language) , meteorology , atmospheric sciences , geology , geography , oceanography , field programmable gate array , computer science , computer hardware
Abstract Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.