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A Mechanism for the Arctic Sea Ice Spring Predictability Barrier
Author(s) -
Bushuk Mitchell,
Winton Michael,
Bonan David B.,
BlanchardWrigglesworth Edward,
Delworth Thomas L.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl088335
Subject(s) - predictability , sea ice , climatology , arctic ice pack , environmental science , arctic , cryosphere , arctic geoengineering , arctic sea ice decline , spring (device) , anomaly (physics) , geology , oceanography , antarctic sea ice , physics , quantum mechanics , thermodynamics , condensed matter physics
The decline of Arctic sea ice extent has created a pressing need for accurate seasonal predictions of regional summer sea ice. Recent work has shown evidence for an Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier, which may impose a sharp limit on regional forecasts initialized prior to spring. However, the physical mechanism for this barrier has remained elusive. In this work, we perform a daily sea ice mass (SIM) budget analysis in large ensemble experiments from two global climate models to investigate the mechanisms that underpin the spring predictability barrier. We find that predictability is limited in winter months by synoptically driven SIM export and negative feedbacks from sea ice growth. The spring barrier results from a sharp increase in predictability at melt onset, when ice‐albedo feedbacks act to enhance and persist the preexisting export‐generated mass anomaly. These results imply that ice thickness observations collected after melt onset are particularly critical for summer Arctic sea ice predictions.