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Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone‐Depleting Substances
Author(s) -
Morgenstern Olaf,
O'Connor Fiona M.,
Johnson Ben T.,
Zeng Guang,
Mulcahy Jane P.,
Williams Jonny,
Teixeira João,
Michou Martine,
Nabat Pierre,
Horowitz Larry W.,
Naik Vaishali,
Sentman Lori T.,
Deushi Makoto,
Bauer Susanne E.,
Tsigaridis Kostas,
Shindell Drew T.,
Kinnison Douglas E.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl088295
Subject(s) - radiative forcing , forcing (mathematics) , ozone , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , radiative transfer , climatology , ozone depletion , climate model , ozone layer , climate change , aerosol , meteorology , physics , geology , oceanography , quantum mechanics
We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone‐depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an “emergent constraint” approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979–2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone‐depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite‐based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total‐column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of − 0.05 to 0.13 W m −2 . Our best estimate (0.04 W m −2 ) is on the edge of the “likely” range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m −2 but is in better agreement with two other literature results.