Premium
African Lightning and its Relation to Rainfall and Climate Change in a Convection‐Permitting Model
Author(s) -
Finney D. L.,
Marsham J. H.,
Wilkinson J. M.,
Field P. R.,
Blyth A. M.,
Jackson L. S.,
Kendon E. J.,
Tucker S. O.,
Stratton R. A.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl088163
Subject(s) - lightning (connector) , parametrization (atmospheric modeling) , meteorology , graupel , convection , environmental science , climatology , climate change , atmospheric sciences , thunderstorm , climate model , geology , geography , physics , power (physics) , oceanography , quantum mechanics , radiative transfer
Abstract Global climate models struggle to simulate both the convection and cloud ice fundamental to lightning formation. We use the first convection‐permitting, future climate simulations for the lightning hot spot of Africa, at the same time utilizing an ice‐based lightning parametrization. Both the model and observations show that lightning over Africa's drier areas, as well as the moist Congo, have more lightning per rainfall than other regions. Contrary to results in the literature, the future projection shows little increase in total lightning (~10 7 flashes (or 2%) per degree warming). This is a consequence of increased stability reducing the number of lightning days, largely offsetting the increased graupel and updraft velocity driving an increase in lightning per lightning day. The next step is to establish if these results are robust across other models and, if combined with parametrized‐convection models, whether ensemble‐based information on the possible responses of lightning to climate change can be investigated.