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Changes in Future Synoptic Circulation Patterns: Consequences for Extreme Event Attribution
Author(s) -
Faranda Davide,
Vrac Mathieu,
Yiou Pascal,
Jézéquel Aglaé,
Thao Soulivanh
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl088002
Subject(s) - predictability , climatology , atmospheric circulation , environmental science , attribution , atmospheric research , circulation (fluid dynamics) , atmospheric sciences , climate change , extreme weather , geology , oceanography , mathematics , psychology , social psychology , thermodynamics , statistics , physics
Anthropogenic emissions can modify the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as cold spells, heatwaves, and heavy precipitations. A major challenge is to detect changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with those extreme events. The emergence of patterns depends on the chaotic behavior of the atmospheric flow and can also be modified by anthropogenic emissions. By embedding the circulation patterns observed during selected extremes into historical climate simulations and projections based on emission scenarios, we find major changes in probability, predictability, and persistence of atmospheric patterns observed during extreme events using an analog‐based method. The results highlight the need to take into account the role of atmospheric circulation in attribution studies as future extremes will be associated with modified circulation patterns.