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Dynamic Amplification of Subtropical Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate
Author(s) -
Norris Jesse,
Chen Gang,
Li Chao
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl087200
Subject(s) - precipitation , subtropics , climatology , environmental science , residual , climate change , hadley cell , atmospheric sciences , global warming , amplitude , climate model , interval (graph theory) , general circulation model , geology , meteorology , mathematics , geography , physics , ecology , oceanography , algorithm , quantum mechanics , combinatorics , biology
Projected precipitation changes in a warming climate vary considerably, spatially, and between intensities. The changes can be greater or less than the ∼ 7% K −1 Clausius‐Clapeyron (CC) prediction, owing to dynamic effects. Using two global‐climate‐model large ensembles, we quantify the dynamically induced changes to precipitation extremes from the present (1996–2005) to late‐21st‐century (2071–2080) climates, as a function of recurrence interval, focusing on the subtropics. We separate non‐CC changes into a term proportional to the present‐day vertical‐velocity spatial pattern (i.e., an amplification or damping thereof by a constant factor) and a residual. The amplitude term varies with recurrence interval, approximately canceling (doubling) CC for moderate (large) extremes, increasing precipitation variability. Contrastingly, the residual is quasi‐uniform across recurrence intervals but spatially heterogeneous, weakening extremes over dry zones. This residual may be related to Hadley cell expansion, although this explanation is insufficient to explain many features, and other possible mechanisms are discussed.