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Anthropogenic Intensification of Surface Ocean Interannual pCO 2 Variability
Author(s) -
Gallego M. Angeles,
Timmermann Axel,
Friedrich Tobias,
Zeebe Richard E.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2020gl087104
Subject(s) - biogeochemistry , environmental science , sink (geography) , climatology , carbon dioxide , atmosphere (unit) , atmospheric sciences , carbon sink , sea surface temperature , carbon cycle , greenhouse gas , carbon fibers , climate change , oceanography , geology , meteorology , chemistry , ecosystem , geography , ecology , cartography , organic chemistry , materials science , composite number , composite material , biology
We use several global coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐biogeochemistry models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to show that the global interannual variability of the sea surface pCO 2 (calculated as 1 σ ) will increase by ∼64 ± 20% by 2040–2090 relative to the beginning of the industrial revolution under the RCP8.5 scenario. All models agree that the increase in variability is a consequence of a larger background pCO 2 and a lower buffering capacity that enhance the response of pCO 2 to the fluctuations of surface temperature (T) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). The most skillful group of models under present‐day conditions shows a future global decrease in DIC fluctuations that will weaken the pCO 2 interannual variability (IAV). The remaining uncertainties in the projected evolution of pCO 2 variability regionally highlight the need for continuous carbon monitoring programs which will contribute to a better understanding of the oceanic carbon sink's response to increased green house emissions.