Open AccessCMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850–2014) With GISS‐E2.1
Author(s) -
Miller Ron L.,
Schmidt Gavin A.,
Nazarenko Larissa S.,
Bauer Susanne E.,
Kelley Maxwell,
Ruedy Reto,
Russell Gary L.,
Ackerman Andrew S.,
Aleinov Igor,
Bauer Michael,
Bleck Rainer,
Canuto Vittorio,
Cesana Grégory,
Cheng Ye,
Clune Thomas L.,
Cook Ben I.,
Cruz Carlos A.,
Del Genio Anthony D.,
Elsaesser Gregory S.,
Faluvegi Greg,
Kiang Nancy Y.,
Kim Daehyun,
Lacis Andrew A.,
Leboissetier Anthony,
LeGrande Allegra N.,
Lo Ken K.,
Marshall John,
Matthews Elaine E.,
McDermid Sonali,
Mezuman Keren,
Murray Lee T.,
Oinas Valdar,
Orbe Clara,
Pérez GarcíaPando Carlos,
Perlwitz Jan P.,
Puma Michael J.,
Rind David,
Romanou Anastasia,
Shindell Drew T.,
Sun Shan,
Tausnev Nick,
Tsigaridis Kostas,
Tselioudis George,
Weng Ensheng,
Wu Jingbo,
Yao MaoSung
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of advances in modeling earth systems
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.03
H-Index - 58
ISSN - 1942-2466
DOI - 10.1029/2019ms002034
Subject(s) - climatology , forcing (mathematics) , environmental science , climate model , greenhouse gas , atmosphere (unit) , atmospheric sciences , climate change , drawdown (hydrology) , meteorology , geology , oceanography , geography , aquifer , geotechnical engineering , groundwater
Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850–2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System ModelE2.1. The GISS‐E2.1 ensembles are more sensitive to greenhouse gas forcing than their CMIP5 predecessors (GISS‐E2) but warm less during recent decades due to a forcing reduction that is attributed to greater longwave opacity in the GISS‐E2.1 pre‐industrial simulations. This results in an atmosphere less sensitive to increases in opacity from rising greenhouse gas concentrations, demonstrating the importance of the base climatology to forcing and forced climate trends. Most model versions match observed temperature trends since 1979 from the ocean to the stratosphere. The choice of ocean model is important to the transient climate response, as found previously in CMIP5 GISS‐E2: the model that more efficiently exports heat to the deep ocean shows a smaller rise in tropospheric temperature. Model sea level rise over the historical period is traced to excessive drawdown of aquifers to meet irrigation demand with a smaller contribution from thermal expansion. This shows how fully coupled models can provide indirect observational constraints upon forcing, in this case, constraining irrigation rates with observed sea level changes. The overall agreement of GISS‐E2.1 with observed trends is familiar from evaluation of its predecessors, as is the conclusion that these trends are almost entirely anthropogenic in origin.