Premium
Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO‐CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble
Author(s) -
Coppola Erika,
Nogherotto Rita,
Ciarlo' James M.,
Giorgi Filippo,
Meijgaard Erik,
Kadygrov Nikolay,
Iles Carley,
Corre Lola,
Sandstad Marit,
Somot Samuel,
Nabat Pierre,
Vautard Robert,
Levavasseur Guillaume,
Schwingshackl Clemens,
Sillmann Jana,
Kjellström Erik,
Nikulin Grigory,
Aalbers Emma,
Lenderink Geert,
Christensen Ole B.,
Boberg Fredrik,
Sørland Silje Lund,
Demory MarieEstelle,
Bülow Katharina,
Teichmann Claas,
WarrachSagi Kirsten,
Wulfmeyer Volker
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1029/2019jd032356
Subject(s) - climatology , precipitation , climate model , environmental science , mediterranean climate , greenhouse gas , climate change , general circulation model , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geography , geology , oceanography , archaeology
This paper analyzes the ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections for Europe completed within the EURO‐CORDEX project. Projections are available for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP2.6 (22 members) and RCP8.5 (55 members) at 0.11° resolution from 11 RCMs driven by eight global climate models (GCMs). The RCM ensemble results are compared with the driving CMIP5 global models but also with a subset of available last generation CMIP6 projections. Maximum warming is projected by all ensembles in Northern Europe in winter, along with a maximum precipitation increase there; in summer, maximum warming occurs in the Mediterranean and Southern European regions associated with a maximum precipitation decrease. The CMIP6 ensemble shows the largest signals, both for temperature and precipitation, along with the largest inter‐model spread. There is a high model consensus across the ensembles on an increase of extreme precipitation and drought frequency in the Mediterranean region. Extreme temperature indices show an increase of heat extremes and a decrease of cold extremes, with CMIP6 showing the highest values and EURO‐CORDEX the finest spatial details. This data set of unprecedented size and quality will provide the basis for impact assessment and climate service activities for the European region.