Premium
Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Sea Ice Extent and Snow Depth Using Stratospheric Ozone Information
Author(s) -
Stone Kane A.,
Solomon Susan,
Kinnison Douglas E.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1029/2019jd031770
Subject(s) - northern hemisphere , snow , cryosphere , climatology , sea ice , arctic , polar vortex , environmental science , arctic ice pack , proxy (statistics) , climate model , atmospheric sciences , ozone layer , arctic geoengineering , climate change , stratosphere , oceanography , geology , antarctic sea ice , geography , meteorology , machine learning , computer science
The forecast potential of springtime ozone on April surface temperatures at particular locations in the Northern Hemisphere has been previously reported. Evidence suggests that early springtime Arctic stratospheric ozone acts as a proxy for extreme events in the winter polar vortex. Here, using a state‐of‐the‐art chemistry‐climate model, reanalysis and observations, we extend the forecast potential of ozone on surface temperatures to aspects of the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere. Sea ice fraction and sea ice extent differences between years of March high and low Arctic stratospheric ozone extremes show excellent agreement between an ensemble of chemistry‐climate model simulations and observations, with differences occurring not just in April but extending through to the following winter season in some locations. Large snow depth differences are also obtained in regional locations in Russia and along the southeast coast of Alaska. These differences remain elevated until early summer, when snow cover diminishes. Using a conditional empirical model in a leave‐three‐out cross validation method, March total column ozone is able to accurately predict the sign of the observed sea ice extent and snow depth anomalies over 70% of the time during an ozone extreme year, especially in the region of the Bering strait and the Greenland Sea, which could be useful for shipping routes and for testing climate models.