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Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes in CMIP6 Projections
Author(s) -
Chen Ziming,
Zhou Tianjun,
Zhang Lixia,
Chen Xiaolong,
Zhang Wenxia,
Jiang Jie
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl086902
Subject(s) - coupled model intercomparison project , climatology , precipitation , environmental science , monsoon , water cycle , atmospheric sciences , population , global warming , sea surface temperature , climate change , climate model , meteorology , geography , geology , oceanography , ecology , demography , sociology , biology
Changes in global land monsoon (GLM) precipitation determine the local water resource, affecting two thirds of global population. The future changes in GLM summer precipitation and the sources of projection uncertainty under four scenarios are investigated using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The GLM summer precipitation is projected to increase by 1.76 ± 1.57% (2.54 ± 2.22%), 1.33 ± 1.97% (3.52 ± 3.05%), 0.96 ± 2.04% (3.51 ± 4.97%), and 1.71 ± 2.38% (5.75 ± 5.92%) in the near (long) term under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5, respectively. The enhancement is caused by thermodynamic responses due to increased moisture, which is partly offset by dynamic responses due to weakened circulation. The uncertainty in GLM precipitation projection is the largest in SSP5–8.5 long‐term projection. The uncertainty of submonsoon precipitation projections is larger than that in GLM precipitation. The uncertainty of monsoon precipitation projection arises from the circulation changes, which can be partly explained by model‐dependent response to uniform sea surface temperature warming.