Premium
Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill
Author(s) -
Acosta Navarro J. C.,
Ortega P.,
Batté L.,
Smith D.,
Bretonnière P. A.,
Guemas V.,
Massonnet F.,
Sicardi V.,
Torralba V.,
Tourigny E.,
DoblasReyes F. J.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl086753
Subject(s) - teleconnection , climatology , sea ice , northern hemisphere , arctic ice pack , middle latitudes , arctic sea ice decline , arctic , forecast skill , environmental science , siberian high , sea surface temperature , latitude , precipitation , polar vortex , antarctic sea ice , geology , oceanography , meteorology , geography , stratosphere , el niño southern oscillation , archaeology , geodesy , east asia , china
Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using four state‐of‐the‐art forecast systems. Our main goal was to quantify the impact of the Arctic sea ice state during November on the sea level pressure (SLP), surface temperature, and precipitation skill during the following winter. Interannual variability of the November Barents and Kara Sea ice is associated with an important fraction of December to February (DJF) prediction skill in regions of Eurasia. We further show that skill related to sea ice in these regions is accompanied with enhanced skill of DJF SLP in western Russia, established by a sea ice‐atmosphere teleconnection mechanism. The teleconnection is strongest when atmospheric blocking conditions in Scandinavia/western Russia in November reduce a systematic SLP bias that is present in all systems.