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New Generation of Climate Models Track Recent Unprecedented Changes in Earth's Radiation Budget Observed by CERES
Author(s) -
Loeb Norman G.,
Wang Hailan,
Allan Richard P.,
Andrews Timothy,
Armour Kyle,
Cole Jason N. S.,
Dufresne JeanLouis,
Forster Piers,
Gettelman Andrew,
Guo Huan,
Mauritsen Thorsten,
Ming Yi,
Paynter David,
Proistosescu Cristian,
Stuecker Malte F.,
Willén Ulrika,
Wyser Klaus
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl086705
Subject(s) - shortwave , longwave , shortwave radiation , equator , climatology , environmental science , outgoing longwave radiation , flux (metallurgy) , atmospheric sciences , sea surface temperature , radiative flux , atmosphere (unit) , climate model , radiative transfer , sea ice , cloud cover , climate change , geology , meteorology , radiation , physics , cloud computing , latitude , convection , oceanography , materials science , geodesy , quantum mechanics , computer science , metallurgy , operating system
We compare top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes observed by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and simulated by seven general circulation models forced with observed sea‐surface temperature (SST) and sea‐ice boundary conditions. In response to increased SSTs along the equator and over the eastern Pacific (EP) following the so‐called global warming “hiatus” of the early 21st century, simulated TOA flux changes are remarkably similar to CERES. Both show outgoing shortwave and longwave TOA flux changes that largely cancel over the west and central tropical Pacific, and large reductions in shortwave flux for EP low‐cloud regions. A model's ability to represent changes in the relationship between global mean net TOA flux and surface temperature depends upon how well it represents shortwave flux changes in low‐cloud regions, with most showing too little sensitivity to EP SST changes, suggesting a “pattern effect” that may be too weak compared to observations.