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Extreme Atlantic Hurricane Probability of Occurrence Through the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution
Author(s) -
Hosseini S. R.,
Scaioni M.,
Marani M.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl086138
Subject(s) - extreme value theory , generalized extreme value distribution , climatology , atlantic hurricane , storm , environmental science , tropical cyclone , meteorology , statistics , econometrics , geography , mathematics , geology
The estimation of extreme hurricane probability is hampered by small samples and by limitations in our models of extreme tropical storms. Current best estimates of extreme hurricane probability based on the traditional extreme value theory assume hurricane arrivals to be a homogeneous Poisson process. We reformulate here, for application to Atlantic hurricanes, the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD) that relaxes this key assumption in the traditional extreme value theory and uses all available observations. The MEVD application to the 1886–2017 observational record improves the accuracy of extreme Atlantic hurricane estimation by about 50% with respect to current best estimates. The MEVD allows trends to emerge above estimation uncertainty: A sliding‐window analysis shows a significant increase in extreme hurricane likelihood in the past century. This trend, previously uncertain and controversial, remains significant after correcting for hurricane underdetection in the presatellite era and when focusing only on the modern observational period (1970–2017).