Premium
Quantification of the Uncertainty in Coastal Storm Hazard Predictions Due to Wave‐Current Interaction and Wind Forcing
Author(s) -
Lyddon Charlotte E.,
Brown Jennifer M.,
Leonardi Nicoletta,
Saulter Andrew,
Plater Andrew J.
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl086123
Subject(s) - storm surge , storm , forcing (mathematics) , water level , flood myth , environmental science , wave model , coastal flood , wind wave , meteorology , climatology , wave height , current (fluid) , wind wave model , geology , oceanography , climate change , sea level rise , geography , cartography , archaeology
Coastal flood warning and design of coastal protection schemes rely on accurate estimations of water level and waves during hurricanes and violent storms. These estimations frequently use numerical models, which, for computational reasons, neglect the interaction between the hydrodynamic and wave fields. Here, we show that neglecting such interactions, or local effects of atmospheric forcing, causes large uncertainties, which could have financial and operational consequences because flood warnings are potentially missed or protection schemes underdesigned. Using the Severn Estuary, SW England, we show that exclusion of locally generated winds underestimates high water significant wave height by up to 90.1%, high water level by 1.5%, and hazard proxy (water level + 1/2 significant wave height) by 9.1%. The uncertainty in water level and waves is quantified using a system to model tide‐surge‐wave conditions, Delft3D‐FLOW‐WAVE in a series of eight model simulations for four historic storm events.