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Future Changes in the Occurrence of Hybrid Cyclones: The Added Value of Cyclone Classification for the East Australian Low‐Pressure Systems
Author(s) -
Cavicchia L.,
Pepler A.,
Dowdy A.,
Evans J.,
Di Luca A.,
Walsh K.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl085751
Subject(s) - extratropical cyclone , cyclone (programming language) , climatology , tropical cyclone , storm , tropical cyclone scales , environmental science , cyclogenesis , tropical cyclone forecast model , east coast , meteorology , geology , geography , oceanography , computer science , field programmable gate array , computer hardware
Several regions of the world, including the east coast of Australia, are characterized by the occurrence of low‐pressure systems with a range of different dynamical structures, including tropical, extratropical, and hybrid cyclones. Future changes in the occurrence of cyclones are better understood if storms are classified according to their dynamical structure. Therefore, we apply a classification of cyclones according to their cold‐core or warm‐core structure to an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. First, we show that historical simulations reproduce well the reanalysis results in terms of cyclone classification. We then show that once cyclone classification is applied, projections of future cyclone activity become more robust, including a decrease in the occurrence of both cold‐core and warm‐core cyclones. Finally, we show that in a warmer climate warm‐core hybrid cyclone activity could increase close to the coast, while the associated rainfall and wind are projected to increase.