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Nonstationary Teleconnection Between the Pacific Ocean and Arctic Sea Ice
Author(s) -
Bonan D. B.,
BlanchardWrigglesworth E.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl085666
Subject(s) - teleconnection , climatology , arctic , environmental science , sea ice , arctic ice pack , troposphere , oceanography , coupled model intercomparison project , the arctic , geology , atmospheric sciences , climate model , climate change , el niño southern oscillation
Over the last 40 years observations show a teleconnection between summertime Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and September Arctic sea ice extent. However, the short satellite observation record has made it difficult to further examine this relationship. Here, we use 30 fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to assess the ability of GCMs to simulate this teleconnection and analyze its stationarity over longer timescales. GCMs can temporarily simulate the teleconnection in continuous 40‐year segments but not over longer, centennial timescales. Each GCM exhibits considerable teleconnection variability on multidecadal timescales. Further analysis shows that the teleconnection depends on an equally nonstationary atmospheric bridge from the subequatorial Pacific Ocean to the upper Arctic troposphere. These findings indicate that the modulation of Arctic sea ice loss by subequatorial Pacific Ocean variability is not fixed in time, undermining the assumption of teleconnection stationarity as defined by the satellite record.